The global sports media rights revenue for the top 17 leagues is projected to reach $96.3 billion by 2035, driven by the shift from pay TV to direct-to-consumer (D2C) streaming. However, infrastructure challenges, rising content costs, and evolving consumer behaviour may delay full adoption, with hybrid models expected to dominate.

Rethink TV, the research division of Rethink Technology Research, has published its latest report, "Sports Rights Forecast – 2025-2035." The report provides a detailed analysis of the changing landscape of sports media rights and the shift from traditional pay TV distribution to direct-to-consumer (D2C) streaming models.

According to the report, the global media rights revenue (MRR) for the top 17 sports leagues is expected to grow to $96.3 billion by 2035, more than four times its 2015 total. Despite this projected growth, the industry faces significant challenges as it navigates technological and economic barriers in the transition from pay TV to digital-first streaming services.

A Transforming Industry: The Move from Pay TV to OTT Streaming

The sports broadcasting industry is undergoing a major transformation. The once-dominant pay TV model is weakening, as streaming services, particularly over-the-top (OTT) platforms such as Amazon Prime Video, Netflix, and DAZN, gain a stronger foothold in the market.

By 2033/34, when several major sports media rights contracts are due for renewal, a significant shift toward pureplay OTT platforms is anticipated. However, the question remains whether sports leagues can bypass third-party rights holders entirely or if economic realities will necessitate continued partnerships with pay TV providers.

Key projections: Market growth and leading sports leagues

The report forecasts that by 2030, the global MRR for the top 17 leagues will reach $73 billion, with American football projected to overtake the combined MRR of the top nine soccer leagues for the first time in history. Along with baseball, these sports will remain the three most valuable in terms of media rights revenue.

The 17 leagues analysed in the report include:

• Football/Soccer: English Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Serie A, UEFA Champions League/Europa League, Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, Major League Soccer, Chinese Super League, and B.League (Japan)
• American Football: National Football League (NFL)
• Baseball: Major League Baseball (MLB)
• Basketball: National Basketball Association (NBA)
• Ice Hockey: National Hockey League (NHL)
• Motorsport: Formula 1 World Championship
• Professional Wrestling: World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)
• Cricket: Indian Premier League (IPL)

These leagues are expected to command a total of $73 billion by 2030 and $96.3 billion by 2035, reinforcing their dominance in global sports broadcasting.

Challenges facing the D2C transition

Despite the promising revenue projections, several barriers are hindering the sports industry’s full-scale transition to D2C streaming. Some of the key challenges include:

• Infrastructure limitations: Many sports leagues lack the robust streaming infrastructure needed to match the reliability and scale of legacy pay TV networks. Technologies such as Multicast ABR and Open Caching are still in early stages, delaying widespread adoption of D2C models.
• Escalating content costs: While OTT platforms have signed record-breaking multi-billion-dollar deals, the sustainability of these agreements is uncertain, particularly as advertising-supported models struggle to offset rising content costs.
• Evolving consumer behaviour: Younger audiences are shifting towards short-form content, preferring on-demand highlights over traditional full-match broadcasts. To adapt, leagues are investing in alternative monetisation strategies, including documentaries, behind-the-scenes content, and interactive digital experiences.

The future of sports broadcasting: Hybrid models and innovation

As the industry moves forward, hybrid models are expected to dominate the sports media landscape. Many leagues will continue selling partial rights to pay TV operators while simultaneously experimenting with their own D2C platforms.

OTT platforms such as Amazon, Netflix, and DAZN remain at the forefront of this shift, but their long-term viability depends on their ability to balance rights acquisition costs with profitability.

Rafi Cohen, an analyst at Rethink TV, highlights the industry’s "high-stakes balancing act" leading up to 2033/34, when major broadcasting contracts are due for renewal. He states, "The question is whether leagues will be able to fully bypass third-party rights holders, or if economic realities will keep partnerships in play."

Comprehensive industry insights in the Rethink TV report

The "Sports Rights Forecast – 2025-2035" report provides an in-depth analysis of the global sports media market, offering:

• Revenue forecasts for the top 17 sports leagues globally.
• Regional comparisons and uptake trends for pay TV and OTT services.
• Technical discussions on streaming infrastructure, rights-sharing models, and emerging technologies.
• Detailed league-by-league insights into media rights pricing and strategic approaches.

The report is backed by extensive industry engagement and Rethink TV’s 20+ years of research, offering valuable insights for rights owners, pay TV operators, OTT platforms, and sports stakeholders.